The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Not a bad streak. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. All rights reserved. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. These are the bellwether counties. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Until this year. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Outstanding. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Outstanding. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Trump gave them hope. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . . Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Twitter Twitter Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Thank you for supporting our journalism. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. TIP: New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. (subject to censorship). North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Go on, look them up! David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Read about our approach to external linking. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Their hopes are real. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Jeff. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Read about our approach to external linking. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. i.e. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). 12. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). But it's still indicative of widespread support. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Arapahoe County. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. 2. So, where are the bellwether counties? Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . 8. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. 3. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). 5. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. 4. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state.